Net Profit: Rafa's Winning Formula At Melbourne Park

There is an invisible alliance between first serves and net points.

An Infosys ATP Beyond The Numbers analysis of Rafael Nadal’s victory at the 2022 Australian Open uncovered the Spaniard was most successful coming forward when the point started with his first serve. Nadal came to the net 167 times in seven matches at Melbourne Park last year, with an eye-opening 50 per cent of them (84) occurring when Nadal started the point with a first serve.

2022 Australian Open: Nadal Net Points Played

Point Started	Total	%
1st Serve	84	50%
1st Serve Return	35	21%
2nd Serve	25	15%
2nd Serve Return	23	14%
TOTAL	167	100%

It’s important to note that the analysis includes net points played at all rally lengths, not just immediately following a serve or return. It’s logical to discover that Nadal’s pin-point first serve facilitates most net points, but it goes against the grain that Nadal came to the net second most when returning first serves. Nadal is known to take up an extremely deep return position well behind the baseline when returning first serves, but that clearly does not stop him from finding his way forward to the net to finish points.

Another hypothesis is that the server immediately hits a drop shot to take advantage of his deep return position. That theory gains legs when you see that Nadal only won 54 per cent (19/35) of points when the point started for him with a first serve return. That’s well below the win percentage of the three other scenarios.

2022 Australian Open: Nadal Net Points Won

Point Started	Won/Played	% Won
2nd Serve	22/25	88%
1st Serve	63/84	75%
2nd Serve Return	17/23	74%
1st Serve Return	19/35	54%
TOTAL	121/167	72%

Overall, Nadal won a commendable 72 per cent (121/167) of his net points on Rod Laver Arena last year, with points won behind his second serve, delivering the highest win percentage at 88 per cent (22/25).

When the point started with Nadal’s first serve, the Spaniard was able to play more than double the amount of points at net compared to finishing the point standing at the baseline compared to the other three ways a point started.

2022 Australian Open: Nadal Net Points vs. Baseline Points Played

Point Started	Net Points	Baseline Points
1st Serve	26%	74%
2nd Serve	12%	88%
1st Serve Return	11%	89%
2nd Serve Return	11%	89%

Nadal’s first serve was clearly a great enabler of his net game last year, and there is every reason to think the Spaniard will employ the exact same tactics this year in search of Grand Slam title number 23.

from Tennis - ATP World Tour https://ift.tt/EyQxHu1