Nadal Leads Top 10 In Surprising Serving Statistic

You are a righty about to hit a first serve against a lefty in the Deuce court. The serve should go out wide, right? Surely sliding the first serve out to the left-hander’s backhand return will deliver the highest win percentage…

No. It. Doesn’t.

An Infosys ATP Insights deep dive into the current serving patterns of the Top 10 players in the ATP Rankings against left-handed opponents in the Deuce court from 2011-2018 at ATP Tour Masters 1000 events and the Nitto ATP Finals identifies more first serves do go wide to the lefty’s backhand return, but a higher percentage are won serving right down the middle to the forehand.

Current Top 10: Location Of First Serves To The Deuce Court
• Wide to left-hander’s backhand = 74.2% won
• T to the left-hander’s forehand = 75.6% won
• Advantage = 1.4 percentage points.

What’s fascinating is that eight of the world’s Top 10 serve wide to the backhand more often with their first serve in the Deuce court, but six of those 10 players win more with their first down the T to the forehand.

2018 Top 10: Serve Direction In Deuce Ct vs. Lefties (2011-2018 Masters 1000s & Nitto ATP Finals)

ATP Ranking	Player	T (to the forehand)	Body	Wide (to the backhand)	Serve Down T vs. Out Wide
2	Rafael Nadal	161	64	124	+37
6	Kevin Anderson	63	3	60	+3
10	John Isner	145	22	147	-2
1	Novak Djokovic	312	38	324	-12
4	Alexander Zverev	67	19	89	-22
5	Juan Martin del Potro	100	15	123	-23
7	Dominic Thiem	132	6	175	-43
9	Kei Nishikori	120	49	165	-45
8	Marin Cilic	101	3	166	-65
3	Roger Federer	154	15	233	-79
	TOTAL	1355	234	1606	-251
	PERCENTAGE	42.4%	7.3%	50.3%	-

Rafael Nadal, the only left-hander in the Top 10, directed by far the most serves down the T in the Deuce court to his left-handed opponents’ forehand than out wide to the backhand. Does the 17-time Grand Slam champion know something about playing lefties that the rest of the Top 10 do not, or is it simply a result of his natural lefty slice serve motion across his body which ends up down the T? Nadal hit 37 more first serves down the T than out wide, with Kevin Anderson the only other Top 10 player registering more first serves down the T - hitting 63 down the T and 60 out wide.

Roger Federer went with the traditional pattern of a wide slider to the backhand return the most, hitting 79 more first serves out wide than down the T (233 wide/154 T).

Win Percentage: T vs. Wide (2011-2018 Masters 1000s & Nitto ATP Finals)

ATP Ranking	Player	T (to the forehand)	Body	Wide (to the backhand)	% Point Difference T vs Wide
5	Juan Martin del Potro	83.0%	60.0%	65.0%	18.0
8	Marin Cilic	77.2%	100.0%	68.1%	9.2
7	Dominic Thiem	81.8%	66.7%	78.9%	2.9
6	Kevin Anderson	85.7%	66.7%	83.3%	2.4
3	Roger Federer	76.6%	73.3%	75.1%	1.5
2	Rafael Nadal	71.4%	67.2%	70.2%	1.2
9	Kei Nishikori	70.0%	75.5%	70.9%	-0.9
4	Alexander Zverev	71.6%	78.9%	73.0%	-1.4
10	John Isner	80.0%	72.7%	83.0%	-3.0
1	Novak Djokovic	70.8%	60.5%	75.3%	-4.5
	AVERAGE WIN %	75.6%	69.7%	74.2%	-1.4

The table above identifies that six of the top 10 had a higher win percentage serving to the left-hander’s forehand down the T than out wide to the backhand. Juan Martin del Potro led the Top 10 in a T versus wide comparison, winning 18 percentage points more (83.0% to 65.0%) down the T than out wide. The other players that won more down the T than out wide were Marin Cilic (+9.2), Dominic Thiem (+2.9), Anderson (+2.4), Federer (+1.5) and Nadal (+1.2).

There are two key factors that are driving these metrics:
• Serving down the T consistently elicits faster serves, delivering a higher likelihood of an ace or an unreturned serve.
• The element of surprise. Lefties will typically be sitting on a wide first serve.

The analysis certainly suggests that first serves can more than hold their own against a comparatively stronger forehand return. The secret sauce is undoubtedly in the mix.

from Tennis - ATP World Tour http://bit.ly/2Spo2oh