Serving at 40/0 versus 0/40 could not be more opposite – or the same.
An Infosys ATP Insights deep dive into these two contrasting game scores over the past four seasons for the current Top 10 identifies a massive gap in the expected chance of holding serve, as you would expect. What is also uncovered is a surprising symmetry in where first serves go when a player desperately needs a point (0/40), or has the freedom to surprise the returner with a secondary serve pattern (40/0).
Holding from 40/0 & 0/40
From 2015-2018, the Top 10 have averaged holding serve a dominant 99.4 per cent (9845/9904) of the time when leading 40/0 on serve. Juan Martin del Potro was the most successful holding from 40/0, amazingly dropping serve only one time (594/595), with John Isner and Marin Cilic dropping serve twice, and Roger Federer three times.
When the tables were turned and the Top 10 found themselves down 0/40 attempting to hold, the percentage plummeted all the way down to 20.6 (213/1032). Isner led the Top 10 holding from 0/40 at 27 per cent (20/74).
Current Top 10: Percentage Of Holding From 0/40 and 40/0 – 2015-2018
|
Ranking |
Player |
Holding from 40/0 |
Holding from 0/40 |
|
1 |
N. Djokovic |
99.2% |
21.4% |
|
2 |
R. Nadal |
99.5% |
22.8% |
|
3 |
R. Federer |
99.7% |
25.8% |
|
4 |
A. Zverev |
98.8% |
15.9% |
|
5 |
M. Cilic |
98.8% |
13.4% |
|
6 |
J. M. Del Potro |
99.8% |
10.3% |
|
7 |
K. Anderson |
99.5% |
26.8% |
|
8 |
D. Thiem |
99.0% |
22.7% |
|
9 |
K. Nishikori |
98.8% |
21.1% |
|
10 |
J. Isner |
99.8% |
27.0% |
|
- |
AVERAGE |
99.4% |
20.6% |
Serve Direction 40/0 & 0/40
You would suspect that serve direction would vary greatly at these two contrasting game scores, as players either elect to go with their favourite location to increase the percentages of winning the point, or surprise to a new location to keep the opponent guessing.
As it turns out, the Top 10 average exactly the same amount of first serves out wide (50 per cent), at the body (eight per cent) and down the centre T (42 per cent) at 40/0 and 0/40.
Current Top 10: Serve Direction at 0/40 and 40/0 - 2015-2018
|
Ranking |
Player |
0-40 Wide |
0-40 Body |
0-40 T |
Total |
40-0 Wide |
40-0 Body |
40-0 T |
Total |
|
1 |
N. Djokovic |
24 |
2 |
24 |
50 |
257 |
25 |
220 |
502 |
|
2 |
R. Nadal |
39 |
13 |
13 |
65 |
196 |
39 |
156 |
391 |
|
3 |
R. Federer |
14 |
1 |
20 |
35 |
273 |
21 |
173 |
467 |
|
4 |
A. Zverev |
5 |
3 |
9 |
17 |
55 |
9 |
45 |
109 |
|
5 |
M. Cilic |
13 |
1 |
11 |
25 |
77 |
22 |
86 |
185 |
|
6 |
J. M. Del Potro |
18 |
1 |
13 |
32 |
98 |
23 |
51 |
172 |
|
7 |
K. Anderson |
5 |
1 |
15 |
21 |
113 |
20 |
80 |
213 |
|
8 |
D. Thiem |
8 |
0 |
13 |
21 |
60 |
7 |
54 |
121 |
|
9 |
K. Nishikori |
25 |
5 |
13 |
43 |
81 |
33 |
44 |
158 |
|
10 |
J. Isner |
14 |
0 |
10 |
24 |
131 |
16 |
218 |
365 |
|
- |
TOTAL |
165 |
27 |
141 |
333 |
1341 |
215 |
1127 |
2683 |
|
- |
PERCENTAGE |
50% |
8% |
42% |
100% |
50% |
8% |
42% |
100% |
There was no set pattern of play on an individual basis, with some players switching locations, and others sticking to what they know best.
For example, Kevin Anderson served 71 per cent (15/21) of his first serves down the T at 0/40, but switched his primary target to out wide when leading 40/0, where he served 57 per cent of first serves. Some players, such as Rafael Nadal, kept the same location where they hit most serves, which was out wide for the Spaniard at both game scores.
It turns out there that 40/0 and 0/40 have a lot more in common than we ever knew.
from Tennis - ATP World Tour https://ift.tt/2rc2YFA
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