Hitting a first serve down the T in the Deuce court to an opponent’s backhand return is a dominant pattern of play in our sport. Where should you expect the ball to come back?
Answer: backhands equal more backhands.
An Infosys ATP Insights deep dive into this specific pattern of play identifies that both the server and the returner are eager to pressure their opponent’s less potent backhand wing to begin the point.
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The analysis combines the following three strategy elements from ATP World Tour Masters 1000 events in 2018.
1. A right-handed server.
2. A first serve made down the T in the Deuce court.
3. A Top 10 right-handed returner.
Since the data set is focused on right-handers, World No. 1 Rafael Nadal (left-handed) is replaced in the data set with No. 11 Kei Nishikori (right-handed). The 10 players are:
1. Novak Djokovic
2. Roger Federer
3. Juan Martin del Potro
4. Alexander Zverev
5. Marin Cilic
6. Dominic Thiem
7. Kevin Anderson
8. John Isner
9. Grigor Dimitrov
10. Kei Nishikori
Overall, 62 per cent of backhand returns that came back in play were hit to the Ad court, looking to make the server hit a Serve +1 backhand (first shot after the serve). That means that 38 per cent were returned cross court to the Deuce court, where the server looked to dominate the start of the point with a more offensive Serve +1 forehand strategy.
Highest Overall Win Percentage = Novak Djokovic
World No. 2 Novak Djokovic leads the group with the most amount of first-serve return points won from the Deuce court T location with a dominant 56.1 percent of points won. Djokovic is widely recognised as having one of the best returns of serve in the history of our sport, and it certainly bears fruit in this analysis.
The top-three win percentages so far in 2018 returning a first serve with a backhand return from the T location in the Deuce court are:
1. N. Djokovic 56.1%
2. A. Zverev 53.8%
3. K. Anderson 48.0%
Highest Win Percentage Returning To Ad Court = Alexander Zverev
Zverev actually targeted more backhand returns to the Deuce court, but when it was directed down the line to the Ad court, he enjoyed the highest win percentage of the group to the specific location.
The highest-three win percentages returning first serves from down the T back to the Ad court are:
1. A. Zverev 64.3%
2. N. Djokovic 60.9%
3. D. Thiem 54.0%
Highest Win Percentage Returning To Deuce Court = Kei Nishikori
Nishikori was ranked as low as No. 39 back in April 2018, but recently reached the final of the Rakuten Japan Open Tennis Championships 2018 as well as semi-finals at the US Open and the Moselle Open. Those results have catapulted the Japanese star back up No. 11 this week.
from Tennis - ATP World Tour https://ift.tt/2Rl2mbH
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